Florida's net domestic migration plunged roughly 93% from its 2022 peak, but the households still arriving bring higher incomes. In St. Johns County, that means the housing and commercial markets are splitting along income lines.

The state gained just 22,517 net domestic migrants in 2025, down from 310,892 in 2022, according to a Florida Realtors analysis released Nov. 10. The 93% decline is calculated from those figures. Florida fell to eighth nationally for net domestic migration after years near the top.

The money tells a different story. Net household income tied to migration was $8.6 billion in 2024, down 41% from the 2022 peak of $14.6 billion but still the highest of any state, according to the analysis. The data draws from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey microdata.

Total household income flowing into Florida continued to grow, but income tied to departing households grew faster, narrowing the net gain, according to the Florida Realtors report. Jennifer Warner, the organization's director of economic development and commercial research, noted that both sides matter for real estate. Arriving households need somewhere to live, while departing homeowners may have a home to sell.

What's driving the slowdown

Rising home prices that began in 2020 and accelerated through 2022 made Florida harder to afford, the Florida Realtors analysis found. Mortgage rate increases in the second half of 2022 compounded the problem. Insurance premiums, property taxes and homeowners association fees add further cost for prospective movers.

The affordability squeeze hits harder at lower income levels. Higher-income households, less reliant on loans, are transacting more comfortably at upper price tiers, according to the Florida Realtors report. Even when median sale prices hold steady and total closed sales decline, increasing dollar volume can signal the outsize role of higher-end transactions.

That gap matters for St. Johns County. First Coast Observer reported that the CR 210 corridor and the State Road 16/World Golf Village area continue to see commercial investment tracking residential buildout, while buyers priced out of master-planned communities such as Nocatee may push into Clay County.

Competition from other states

Florida still leads the nation in net income migration, but the gap is narrowing. South Carolina showed resilience during the same period, according to the Florida Realtors data.

On the commercial side, demand for consumer goods follows households with higher discretionary spending, which may show up in strong leasing and new construction, the Florida Realtors analysis noted. Where those households settle determines which corridors benefit.

Northeast Florida's lower cost of living compared to South Florida remains an advantage, but the region now competes more directly with markets in the Carolinas and Georgia, First Coast Observer reported.