The National Weather Service office in Jacksonville is warning that the current El Niño could bring heightened tornado risk to Florida.

The agency said the current El Niño's strength is comparable to the 1997-1998 El Niño event, according to a Nov. 10 post on X marking Day 2 of Florida El Niño Awareness Week. That post focused on severe weather patterns tied to very strong El Niño years.

During those years, tornado frequency increases slightly, hail decreases significantly and damaging wind remains nearly unchanged, the NWS said.

The 1998 precedent

The NWS post highlighted the Feb. 21-23, 1998, tornado outbreak in central Florida as the most notable severe weather event from the last comparable El Niño. That outbreak produced 15 tornadoes and 42 confirmed fatalities, according to the post.

A National Weather Service assessment of the outbreak found that between 9:45 p.m. on Feb. 22 and 3:16 a.m. on Feb. 23, the NWS Melbourne office issued 14 tornado warnings. All seven confirmed tornadoes during that period were preceded by warnings.

The average warning lead time before a tornado occurred in a warned county was 15 minutes, ranging from 3 minutes to 33 minutes, the assessment found. In areas where fatalities occurred, the average warning lead time before the first death was 23 minutes.

The timing proved deadly. The tornadoes hit while many residents had already gone to bed and turned off televisions and radios. No outdoor warning siren systems were in place in the affected areas. Interviews with more than 50 residents in the storms' path found that only one person knew of and had NOAA Weather Radio. That person did not have a warning alarm receiver and did not use it as a primary source of weather information.

The Ponderosa RV Park in Kissimmee suffered near-total devastation in a narrow corridor, with multiple fatalities at that location, the assessment found.

Cold snap ahead

Separately, the NWS Jacksonville forecast posted Nov. 12 calls for warm temperatures through Thursday before a sharp drop starting Friday, Nov. 13. Low temperatures are expected to plunge into the 30s and 40s on both Saturday and Sunday mornings. The first frost of the season is possible for inland southeast Georgia on Sunday morning.